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A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's

☆ Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset Management discusses markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season isn't going as expected: Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset ManagementFlorian Ielpo, head of macroeconomics at Multi Asset Group Lombard Odier Asset Management, discusses the outlook for U.S. and European markets.

Persons: Florian Ielpo Organizations: Management

Enter the Swiss franc, a longstanding safe haven asset that just hit its highest level against the euro since 2015 , standing tall as its traditional rivals lose appeal. Other than U.S. dollar cash, only the Swiss franc and gold remained as options, Ielpo said. The Swiss franc has rallied over 3% against the yen this month. Reuters GraphicsUNCERTAIN WORLDSince the Oct.7 Hamas attacks in Israel, the Swiss franc -- also referred to as the Swissie -- has rallied roughly 2% against the dollar. "The war in the Middle East clearly has lead to a flight to safety that benefited the Swiss franc," said Karsten Junius, an economist at J.Safra Sarasin in Zurich.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, Jeremy Stretch, Karsten Junius, Francesco Pesole, J.Safra Sarassin's Junius, Luca Paolini, Paolini, Treasuries, Toby Gibb, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, John Revill, Amanda Cooper, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Swiss, Nestle, Wall, Lombard, U.S, Swiss National Bank, Traders, Ministry of Finance, CIBC Capital Markets, Reuters, ING, Management, Artemis, Thomson Locations: ZURICH, Israel, Geneva, Japan, Zurich, Swiss, U.S, London

REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Global stocks tick up; U.S. futures riseBond yields tumble again but remain highOil prices steady after rising on Israel-Hamas warLONDON/SINGAPORE, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global stocks edged higher on Wednesday while bond yields dropped again as investors waited for minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation figures. Meanwhile, oil prices were little changed as traders kept an eye on the conflict between Palestinian militants and Israel. The MSCI All World stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.21% on Wednesday, after rising 1% in the previous session. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.26% after the stock index (.SPX) climbed 0.52% on Tuesday. Global stocks, which had been on the slide since early August, have rallied for the last few sessions.

Persons: Dow Jones, I'm, Florian Ielpo, Arthur van Slooten, Raphael Bostic, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, LONDON, Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Lombard, Global, Investors, Treasury, Societe Generale, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Israel, SINGAPORE, Palestinian, Nashville, Gaza, Brent, China, London, Singapore

☆ European retailers risk dressing-down from investors as consumers flinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsThe broader STOXX 600 (.STOXX) is up by 7% this year, meaning retailers are outperforming by the most on record. The snag is that this stellar run has been partly built on investors unwinding bearish bets, or short positions, on retail stocks, after last year's pessimism proved overdone. This means retail stocks might not see as many willing buyers as earlier this year. Jones expects retail stocks to fall in the second half of the year. JPMorgan downgraded the grocery retail sector this month and flagged the prospect of price declines going into 2024.

Persons: Inditex, unwinding, Benjamin Jones, Jones, Florian Ielpo, Ielpo, WH Smith, Alexandre Bompard, LSEG, Joice Alves, Amanda Cooper, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reuters, Macro, Multi, Management, Carrefour, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Zara, bullish, LSEG, Britain

World shares (.MIWD00000PUS) were up 0.3% in European trading. European stocks, led by technology shares and China-exposed automakers, also rose. But the uncomfortable message from Jackson Hole may mean a protracted higher inflation than market bulls might have hoped, said the note. Figures on European Union inflation this week may also be instrumental in whether the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to hike next month. Oil prices drew some support from the storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico and China support.

Persons: Issei Kato, Florian Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Lombard, Ielpo, Jackson, Christine Lagarde, Ben Broadbent, Kazuo Ueda, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Stephen Coates, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Nikkei, U.S, REUTERS, Companies, payrolls, China PMI, China, Nasdaq, FTSE, China Evergrande, HK, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Lombard, Traders, Federal, Fed, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Beijing, Generali, Hollywood, Friday's, Gulf of Mexico

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London

Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA

☆ What could break as interest rates rise?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.

Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine

ET (1900 GMT), to discuss the debt ceiling bill. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 3.72%, while thirty-year yields fell 8 basis points to 3.90%. "What is currently happening since yesterday shows where the debt ceiling premium was actually priced: mostly in bonds," said Ielpo. The cost of insuring exposure to a U.S. debt default meanwhile fell. "I wouldn’t blame the Treasury rally on the debt ceiling deal necessarily... the additional T-bill issuance, quantitative tightening, and difficult bank funding conditions now conspire to less favourable financing conditions to the economy," said Bouvet.

☆ Analysis: Investors see trouble ahead after Europe's stellar first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Europe's largest listed company LVMH (LVMH.PA) produced stellar sales as China rebounded sharply after COVID restrictions ended. The robust corporate margins on show in the first quarter are seen coming under pressure later in the year. Based on Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates, STOXX 600 companies are expected to report net profit margins of 11.4% in the first quarter, up from 10.2% in the last quarter of 2022. But margins are seen declining to 10.5% in the third quarter, according to Refinitiv estimates. But there has not been a wave of companies revising earnings forecasts down, providing a cushion for European equities.

☆ Investors see trouble ahead after Europe's stellar first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

SummarySummary Companies Tech bank's troubles panic marketsFears spread over fallout from rising interest ratesBanks vulnerable as bond values dropLONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - For months, investors had shrugged off the threat of rising interest rates. In SVB's case, venture capital clients, unable to raise cash elsewhere, pulled money from the bank, forcing its hasty sale of bonds at a loss. In February, U.S. regulators said U.S. banks had unrealised losses of more than $620 billion on securities, underscoring the scale of the risks. Jason Benowitz, senior portfolio manager at CI Roosevelt, said SVB's risks were not unique with many banks sitting on such unrealised losses because rates have moved so rapidly. "The SVB situation is a reminder that many institutions are sitting on large unrealised losses," said AJ Bell investment research director Russ Mould.

☆ Markets bracing for 'no landing' world economy scenario curb risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Markets, bracing for a “no landing” scenario where global economic growth is resilient and inflation stays higher for longer, are dialling back appetite for both risk assets and government debt. But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. “We’ve gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight,” said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. GOODBYE RECESSION RISK? Graphic: Economic growth forecasts turn high hereEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. World stocks hit one-month lows on Wednesday, while Wall Street had its worst day of the year so far on Tuesday. "We've gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight," said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. Bond prices fall, and yields rise, when expectations of higher rates on cash make their fixed interest payments less appealing. Reuters GraphicsEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem. With headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too. Fed Futures See Lower Rates End-23Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics"TAIL SCENARIO"Sounding something of a klaxon for most asset markets after the CPI number, the peak or terminal Fed funds rate that futures markets implied by May was dragged firmly back below 5%. Apart from verbal guidance, one important signal markets will watch on Wednesday will be the Fed's economic projections that include policy rate assumptions for the year.

☆ Lombard Odier: Rates high enough for U.S. to avoid hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLombard Odier: Rates high enough for U.S. to avoid hard landingFlorian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier, discusses the company's 2023 outlook for the Federal Reserve and U.S. economy.

But Broadbent's concentration on the likely peak terminal rate next year is what matters most. For context, that UK terminal rate, now pencilled in for around the middle of 2023, rocketed almost two full percentage points from just prior to the botched mini-budget to as high as 6.25%. Fed terminal rates, now targeted about March next year, have jumped 150 bps to 5% over the past two months. And Morgan Stanley, for example, see a UK terminal rate as low as 4% - a huge drop from current market pricing. The stubborn refusal of terminal rate pricing to return to where it was last month reflects the extent of those jitters.

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